By Raja Shahzeb Khan
The situation with the French embassy in Niger is likely to escalate into a military clash. It is rare for an embassy to come into conflict with the country it is located in. Not only have protesters been swarming around the French embassy for a month as the Niger junta orders the French ambassador to leave, there are reports that supply of food, water, and electricity to the embassy has been terminated. This would mean that a diplomatic mission is being besieged by the host nation. Any attack on an embassy or violation of diplomatic immunity technically counts as an act of war under international rules, because the embassy is the property of the nation it represents.
One of the very first military conflicts of the twentieth century was over similar issue. In 1900, a rebel group calling itself Society of Righteous and Harmonious Fists, which Western observers called Boxers, went about northern China attacking foreigners and Christians with the goal of driving westerners and Japanese influence out of China. As they converged on Peking, the capital of China, many foreigners took refuge in the diplomatic quarter. Subsequently, the Boxers laid siege to the legations (a diplomatic mission of lower rank than embassy) of several nations for several weeks. Eventually, a coalition of troops from eight nations was dispatched to China to relieve the legations. Great violence broke out in the country, because the Chinese government tacitly supported the Boxers.
In the end, the foreign coalition captured Peking and defeated the Boxers and the Qing monarchy. The victors imposed humiliating peace terms on China. The monarchy was weakened further and foreign presence increased. These circumstances set the stage for the revolution of 1912, which sought to establish a democratic, Western-style government in China. But China also diverged from that with the proliferation of warlords and the rise of the communist movement, spearheaded by Mao Zedong, who eventually took control of the country in 1949. This is something that Western powers should keep in mind today in case they are thinking of intervening in Niger, because any attempt to suppress a national movement for self-determination might result in the rise of radicalization. In the Sahel region, that prospect is especially dangerous as far as western interests are concerned, as the region can either go in the direction of anti-colonialists joining hands with Russia or in the direction of Islamic extremists.
The situation in Niger today is looking perilously close to what happened in Peking back then. There is the same potential for several nations to get involved in fighting, because while it is just French and United States embassy that are finding themselves in the midst of trouble, ECOWAS is on their side. At the same time, many countries in the region are on the side of Niger junta. If war does break out over Niger, it might end up becoming another so-called “African world war”, a designation given to the Congo civil war of 1996-2003 because of how many African nations intervened in it. Another parallel for how the Niger crisis might turn out is the Suez crisis of 1956. It is possible that France will militarily intervene in Niger to protect its interests, while the United States of America chooses to abandon France for its own need to preserve US’ soft power in the region.
About the author: Raja Shahzeb Khan, author, columnist, journalist, is an expert in history and international affairs.
Zeenia Satti 