Saudi aid package to Pakistan has come as more than a relief. It is indeed a panacea – and comes as the first national morale boost after Imran Khan’s PTI came into office in mid August. Pakistan’s Stock Market has reacted positively with immediate effect. The Rupee has halted its free fall and has gained against the dollar. Imran and his team are beaming with confidence. The press coverage of the government has taken a turn for the better. The opposition’s threatening posture is beginning to look immaterial.
And yet, Islamabad needs to be mindful of the Damocles sword that hangs over Saudi monetary aid to Pakistan. The Khasoggi crisis is getting more grave every day. For the first time in US history, we are told, the head of CIA has traveled to a foreign country to personally look in to the evidence regarding the murder of a journalist. Even before Gina Haspel’s return from Turkey, Donald Trump called Saudi response the worst cover up in the history of cover ups and has threatened serious reprisals. Germany has halted approval of arms deal to Saudi Arabia. Europeans have boycotted the Davos in the Desert. Human Rights Watch is calling for a probe by the UN.Senior UN officials have shown interest – subject to Turkey making a formal request.
The Saudi counter narrative, in the face of all this, is non existent. The implications of this matter seem to have dawned way too slow on MBS and his team. As things stand now, MBS has been thoroughly implicated. The sacking of eighteen officials, one of who, Qahtani, tweeted in recent past that he does nothing on his own, and only carries out orders from his royal highness and the Crown Prince MBS, is not going to pacify what is likely to be growing international outrage as the information coming out gets more gory in its details.
Two things are clear at the outset. One, the west, led by the USA, will use this outrage to try and topple Shah Salman’s government in Saudi Arabia. West’s coercive diplomacy could include economic measures. Two, the international pressure could reverberate inside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where an escalation in tensions could even take a violent turn.
In the event, Saudi ability to deliver aid to Pakistan could be shackled. The way Pakistan’s economy has reacted to the announcement of Saudi aid has revealed Pakistan’s vulnerability to its enemies. The game that is going to be played on the strategic chess board could impact Pakistan’s economic prospects. Putting it another way, Asad Umar’s travails and the Jamal Khashoggi crisis could end up being terribly intertwined.
Imran Khan and his team “MUST” prepare to deal with the shifting sands in this very serious and rapidly evolving crisis.
Zeenia Satti 