Rebellion within the rank and file of the Russian military is now manifesting itself. Video of a brawl inside a Russian military camp during which a soldier dies fighting the decision of his commander to send him to the front is viral on social media. While we have still to find out if the video is fake or real, one thing is for sure. Divisions within the Russian military in the matter of Ukraine war are deep, tempers on both sides are high and getting higher.
The split is between two schools of military preference. Those who want to “neutralize” Ukraine and those who want to destroy Ukraine if need be to safeguard Russia. I said it before and I repeat, there is an opportunity in this development for Zelensky to avail for negotiated settlement of this conflict. If he does not avail the diplomatic mileage the split within Russian forces gives him, his leadership too could come under severe domestic criticism. While Putin is likely to survive the division within his military, Zelensky’s capacity for survival in the face of serious civil military domestic opposition is bleak.
Using the split within the Russian military to steer Russia-Ukraine war towards a negotiated settlement will make Zelensky appear as a winner and give him an edge over Putin internationally. His domestic approval rating too will be high. Zelensky is likely to enjoy overwhelming domestic and international support in his effort to reconstruct his war torn country thereafter. History too will give its verdict in Zelensky’s favour.
All eyes are on Russia now but in due course, Zelensky too could be in the eye of the Ukrainian storm rising against the decisions he made in recent past that led to the war with Russia. Neither the split within the Russian military nor the winning of the hard liners in Russia (when and if that happens) will give military victory to Ukraine in this war.
Seizing the moment, Ukraine could score a victory on the diplomatic front and win sustainable peace. Ending the war now would entail a victory of sorts for NATO as well. Otherwise, this war is likely to evolve as further bad news for Europe.
Zeenia Satti 