Dialogue does not seem to be an option Azerbaijan wants to entertain as it goes to full scale war with Armenia over Nagorno karabakh. Baku is backed by Turkey, morally and militarily, while Armenia’s traditional ally Russia is watching from the sidelines, urging caution to both parties.
Odds are against Armenia this time. The Azerbaijan of 2020 is far more resourceful than the Azerbaijan of 1992 – when Armenia wrested control of territory from it.
All UN resolutions demand withdrawal of Armenian forces from Nagorno Karabakh, and seven surrounding regions. The MINSK process is moot, as the powers involved in attempting to achieve settlement (USA, Russia and France) no longer see eye to eye over core issues – neither do they enjoy the collegiality of early nineties.
Azerbaijan too, unlike the nineties, is not made up of warlords but a cohesive powerful army sustained by oil wealth. As supplier of fossil fuel to the west, Azerbaijan enjoys good relations and carries clout with the latter. The narrative of destruction of cultural sites, ethnic cleansing, forced repatriation and absence of economic activity due to garrison environment in Nagorno Karabakh, rendering the region a ghost area with little prospects for its people if the conflict with Baku remains intractable, convinces every one that this conflict ought to be resolved.
Ilham Aliyev enjoys meaningful support of Turkey and China while Armenia’s leader Pashinyan is tolerated by his ally Russia. Putin mistrusts Pashinyan’s western liberalism and would rather see an end to his rule in Armenia. If defeat in war with Azerbaijan would make it happen, Moscow wouldn’t mind. Putin would not want to make the mistake of committing military support to Armenia’s war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh, and put his multifaceted investments in the Muslim world, where he has worked assiduously to dislodge the security arrangement sponsored by Washington DC, at risk .
The disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan’s. During the last decade, Putin has acted to build bridges with Turkey to undermine NATO. Pashinyan and Nagorno Karabakh are not reasons he would want to jeopardize the same.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative and investment in Iran’s port of Chabahar for the same purpose are better realized with the permanent resolution of conflict in the south Caucasus. Iran, too, would want the same. USA is too busy with election and lots of other pressing concerns, not least of which is uninterrupted Arab-Israeli peace process. Opposing Azerbaijan is not an option for the US at this stage. Israel is mindful of Azerbaijan’s economic significance and the fact that an important Muslim country not only maintains cordial relations with it, but is also a significant purchaser of Israeli defense equipment.
Baku seems all set to win this war. The way Azerbaijan is escalating the war shows determination in the matter. There has been much blood letting in the South Caucasus over Nagorno Karabakh and no side has moral high ground, but economic logic has evolved to be on the side of Azerbaijan.
This war is likely to end on Azerbaijan’s terms.
Zeenia Satti 