Pakistan’s Election Tempo

Pakistan’s election 2018 scene is in (not full) swing. Nominations for all constituencies have been finalized by parties. The Election Commission of Pakistan has completed the whetting process. There has been dramatic disqualifications and reinstatments, such as that of the former Prime Minister Shahid khaqan Abbasi. He was barred for life from contesting elections in his home town because the value he put down on the asset declaration form for his house in Islamabad was the paltry amount at which the house was purchased decades ago, not its current high value. Khaqan scandalized the media by calling the judge who disqualified him “mentally ill,” and proceeded to the high court against the latter’s decision. Khaqan’s lawyer argued that the form does not specify if the candidate is to describe current value of an asset, or one at the time of acquisition, therefore Khaqan can not be charged with asset concealment. Khaqan was reinstated. The next day, he was slapped with contempt of court charges. In its heel came treason charge because Khaqan met with Nawaz Sharif in London, and apparently apprised the latter of the conversations that took place between the civil military authorities in PM office while Khaqan was the PM. Verdicts in both cases are expected in a few days. Khaqan will likely survive the cases and continue to contest the election.
If Khaqan’s saga sounds ridiculous, the overall socio-political environment of election 2018 is no less ludicrous. It is too hot in Pakistan to hold electoral rallies in day time. Candidates eschew night time rallies due to heightened fear of India’s RAW waiting in the wings to sabotage Pakistan’s democratic process through acts of terror. Large posters are hung to attract voters. The same are mercilessly removed by law enforcement for being larger than the size prescribed in regulation. The permitted size seems too small for attracting adequate attention. You have to be able to read the smaller posters to understand the message. Country’s low mass literacy rate does not help as many voters can neither read words written on the poster nor are they able to see the candidate’s face on it clearly. Candidates have taken to campaigning door to door in their air-conditioned luxury vehicles. The constituents avail the unusual proximity to the leader to voice grievances against latter’s previous performance, and oft times take to booing mercilessly. Privately owned cell phones record the scenario and 24/7 media displays the same as ‘mass rejection of candidates.’ Usually, a day after the flashing of such a visual on TV, the candidate in question is seen on TV screen, clarifying his position and calling the crowd too small to matter. In the absence of verification through drone imaging, (a common practice during rallies) the candidate remains unconvincing. Instead of party manifestos, Pakistanis are thus getting daily dose of disgruntled crowds holding a candidate who has unsuspectingly landed himself in their midst to task for unfulfilled promises during previous term. The entire run up to the election on July 25 will likely be spent this way.
And yet, the contest is not likely to be hard this time round. The incumbent PML(N) is being perceived as the party of instability and vendetta. Nawaz Sharif, its former head and three time Prime Minister of Pakistan, who now stands disqualified for life on charges of money laundering, took to accusing the vital institutions of the state such as the judiciary and the armed forces of ………………………actually, its not clear what he is accusing the latter of. Nawaz Sharif has taken to calling the country’s premier intelligence service “alien creatures with mysterious powers” and has accused the judiciary plus the National Accountability Bureau of being ‘possessed’ by the same power. Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother and the current head of the PML(N), Shahbaz Sharif, a pill popping person who seems to be nursing various ailments, is calling for a new constitution. Thus, vague statements and pronouncements by Sharifs that are hostile towards Pakistan’s own institutions, instead of any enemy without, are making Pakistanis petrified of what the Sharifs may do to the country if back in power. Hence not many are thinking of voting the PML(N)back into power. They fear the top brass of the PPP, the other party that has ruled several times in the past, will likely become another casualty of the unprecedented accountability derive currently in top gear in Pakistan. This perception has decreased PPP’s electoral support in Pakistan.
Imran Khan’s PTI is a mess, but with a redeeming feature. The intra party dispute regarding party ticket allocation was played out in a novel manner. Workers ended up at Imran’s residence in great many numbers and staged sit in for days, demanding reconsideration of ticket allocation. The leaders they favored, by and large, remained out of sight themselves, as Imran pleaded with the workers day in and day out to go home and promised to reconsider his decision. Rangers were called in and in an attempt to save face, the PTI cadre declared it necessary for providing safety to the workers! Catering and music was arranged at Imran’s residence and the workers socialized, chanted slogans, ate free food, danced to music, slept, woke up, and seemed least intimidated by Imran Khan when he appeared at the gate of his own house to plead with the workers to end their sit in so he could tend to the election campaign. Finally, the workers left and some tickets were redistributed by the PTI. Thus, a rather impressive and unplanned show of Power to the People was seen within the PTI. Disputes of this nature, in other parties, are only fought out at the party cadre level.
Imran is being subjected to smear campaign but the very fact that instead of corruption, his opponents have tried to smear his image through scandals with women, etc., gives Pakistanis solace in the current circumstances. Imran Khan, they believe, may give them clean governance after all.

Author: Zeenia Satti

Zeenia Satti is a geopolitical analyst with special focus on Middle Eastern, Central Asian and South Asian affairs. She has studied Middle Eastern Affairs at Harvard University, MIT, and The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, USA. She has taught IR at Harvard University, USA. She works in the field of disaster management in Pakistan. Satti's youtube channel is called Zeenia Satti. She tweets at Zssatti. She can be reached at zeenia.satti@post.harvard.edu. www.pldmsite.wordpress.com https://www.youtube.com/@zeeniasatti

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